From Forests to Forecasts: The Hidden Costs of Oversimplification in Business

Why Chasing Efficiency Can Erode Resilience—and What Agribusinesses Can Learn from 18th-Century Forestry

“Carmaking is 100,000 rational decisions in search of one emotional one.” - Kumar Galhotra

In the late 18th century, the Prussians and Saxons, the people groups living in modern-day Germany, faced a growing crisis: their forests were shrinking, and their economies, dependent on timber, were at risk. Old-growth forests of oak, beech, and linden had been depleted by years of both planned and unplanned cutting, and regrowth couldn’t keep pace with demand. In response, German states turned to a radical new solution: scientific forestry.

This new method of forest management was designed to maximize timber production efficiently and predictably. To achieve this, foresters began clearing diverse, mixed-species forests and replacing them with monocultures of fast-growing trees, primarily Norway spruce. These trees were planted in regimented rows, uniform in age and species, making the forests easier to manage and harvest. The straight, orderly lines of spruce gave the impression of control and productivity, a “forest laboratory” where variables could be controlled and yields could be predicted.

Initially, the plan seemed like a success. The monoculture forests grew rapidly, providing a steady supply of timber that boosted state revenues. However, this simplicity came at a cost. The uniform Norway spruce plantations, though easy to manage, lacked the diversity essential for long-term forest health. Without the natural variety of species, pests, and diseases spread unchecked, and the delicate nutrient cycle that had sustained old-growth forests began to break down. The same trees were harvested repeatedly without replenishing the soil’s nutrients, leading to stunted growth in future generations.

By the second rotation of Norway spruce, the negative consequences became undeniable. The trees were growing more slowly, and yields began to decline. The term “Waldsterben,” or “forest death,” entered the German vocabulary to describe the losses in these over-simplified forests.

The German foresters thought they had found a perfect solution, simplifying a chaotic forest into something manageable and predictable. But what they failed to realize was that, in their pursuit of order, they had stripped the system of its resilience.

This challenge isn't confined to the forests of Saxony 300 years ago. This historical mistake echoes in the world of business today, where the drive for predictability often leads to oversimplification. We strive to measure, control, and quantify our way to success by primarily asking the question, “What is?”

But rarely do we stop to ask the far more creative question, “What could be?”